How accurate are North Carolina price ranges?
Every North Carolina figure labelled "Price range" on Groundwork passed a test on later sales (a sealed test, or a development backtest where the table says so) before it was shown: we priced real sales using only data from before each sale, then compared. Figures labelled "Rough estimate" did not reach that standard; their measured miss is listed too. Where a county's test failed outright, its parcels show no figure.
Tested price ranges
Half within: half of the test sales came within this much of the middle of our range (the median miss). Inside the range: the share of scored test sales that fell inside the printed range. A range whose final check is not passed by its due date is withdrawn (the parcel then shows facts only).
| County | Priced | Test | Test sales from | Test sales | Half within | Inside the range | Parcels with this range | Final check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mecklenburg County | homes | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 5,703 | ±7% | 81% | 287,854 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
| Wake County | homes | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 6,385 | ±5% | 82% | 283,128 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
| Forsyth County | homes | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 1,934 | ±9% | 87% | 94,808 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
| Durham County | homes | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 1,730 | ±8% | 81% | 76,331 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
| Johnston County | homes | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 1,512 | ±5% | 84% | 69,805 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
| Cabarrus County | homes | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 1,076 | ±7% | 80% | 66,958 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
| New Hanover County | homes | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 1,918 | ±9% | 81% | 65,835 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
| Iredell County | homes | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 1,346 | ±8% | 86% | 58,963 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
| Mecklenburg County | homes (dearest tenth) | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 1,130 of the 5,703 | ±8% | 82% | 54,181 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
| Wake County | homes (least expensive tenth) | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 636 of the 6,385 | ±7% | 78% | 41,813 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
| Orange County | homes | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 853 | ±9% | 85% | 36,237 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
| Wake County | homes (dearest tenth) | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 673 of the 6,385 | ±7% | 78% | 35,457 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
| Harnett County | homes | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 1,232 | ±7% | 82% | 35,047 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
| Forsyth County | homes | Model test (state-avm-1) | Apr–Sep 2026 | 2,149 | ±10% | 80% | 30,922 | Due Apr 30, 2027 |
| Chatham County | homes | Model test (state-avm-1) | Apr–Sep 2026 | 537 | ±10% | 76% | 30,735 | Due Apr 30, 2027 |
| Wake County | vacant land | Development backtest (nc-price-1) | Oct 2025–Sep 2026 | 535 | ±26% | 77% | 28,967 | Due Jul 11, 2027 |
| Lincoln County | homes | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 759 | ±10% | 80% | 26,867 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
| Johnston County | vacant land | Development backtest (nc-price-2) | Apr 2020–Mar 2026 | 316 | ±32% | 79% | 23,481 | Due Jul 11, 2027 |
| Iredell County | vacant land | Development backtest (nc-price-1) | Apr 2020–Sep 2026 | 1,229 | ±23% | 80% | 18,898 | Due Jul 11, 2027 |
| Forsyth County | vacant land | Development backtest (nc-price-1) | Jul 2022–Sep 2026 | 1,114 | ±26% | 80% | 15,590 | Due Jul 11, 2027 |
| Carteret County | homes | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 541 | ±9% | 78% | 15,000 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
| Johnston County | homes (dearest tenth) | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 219 of the 1,512 | ±6% | 86% | 14,314 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
| Cabarrus County | homes (dearest tenth) | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 184 of the 1,076 | ±7% | 84% | 12,686 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
| Cabarrus County | vacant land | Development backtest (nc-price-1) | Jan 2021–Sep 2026 | 510 | ±27% | 76% | 10,137 | Due Jul 11, 2027 |
| Durham County | homes (dearest tenth) | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 203 of the 1,730 | ±8% | 77% | 10,007 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
| Mecklenburg County | vacant land | Development backtest (nc-price-1) | Apr 2020–Sep 2026 | 2,006 | ±26% | 76% | 9,367 | Due Jul 11, 2027 |
| Iredell County | homes (dearest tenth) | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 206 of the 1,346 | ±11% | 84% | 8,746 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
| Harnett County | homes (dearest tenth) | Sealed home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) | Apr–Oct 2026 | 128 of the 1,232 | ±7% | 80% | 5,764 | Due Jul 31, 2027 |
Rough estimates
Where a county's own sales were too few for a sealed test, or its test missed our standard but stayed usable, the card says "Rough estimate" and gives the miss measured where it was measured: in the county, or across the state's pooled sales. Each label says what it was tested on and how close its estimates came.
| Miss measured | Half within | Covers | Parcels |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nearby counties | ±11% | Land and building | 373,371 |
| Statewide | ±10% | Land and building | 223,798 |
| Nearby counties | ±8% | Land and building | 170,707 |
| Nearby counties | ±9% | Land and building | 170,688 |
| Statewide | ±20% | Land and building | 164,185 |
| Guilford County | ±10% | Land and building | 146,178 |
| Statewide | ±15% | Land and building | 108,505 |
| Across the Piedmont-Triad region | ±10% | Land and building | 88,508 |
| Statewide | ±25% | Land and building | 86,563 |
| Cumberland County | ±9% | Land and building | 80,507 |
| Across the Southeast region | ±10% | Land and building | 70,346 |
| Onslow County | ±5% | Land and building | 50,671 |
| Alamance County | ±10% | Land and building | 50,313 |
| Statewide | ±30% | Land and building | 46,654 |
| Statewide | ±35% | Land and building | 40,224 |
| Henderson County | ±10% | Land and building | 35,877 |
| Haywood County | ±14% | Land and building | 29,413 |
| Guilford County | ±9% | Land and building | 24,748 |
| Pender County | ±10% | Land and building | 21,527 |
| Statewide | ±45% | Land and building | 17,603 |
| Across the Southwest region | ±15% | Land and building | 15,824 |
| Across the North Central region | ±10% | Land and building | 13,323 |
| Durham County | ±17% | Land and building | 13,214 |
| Across the Southeast region | ±15% | Land and building | 12,424 |
| Duplin County | ±14% | Land and building | 11,806 |
| Cumberland County | ±8% | Land and building | 10,726 |
| Not stated | ±45% | Land only | 9,382 |
| Statewide | ±40% | Land only | 9,155 |
| Harnett County | ±18% | Land and building | 8,730 |
| New Hanover County | ±13% | Land and building | 8,581 |
| Across the Piedmont-Triad region | ±25% | Land and building | 8,481 |
| Not stated | ±10% | Land and building | 8,275 |
| Mecklenburg County | ±6% | Land and building | 7,336 |
| New Hanover County | ±12% | Land and building | 7,104 |
| Alamance County | ±8% | Land and building | 6,830 |
| Across the North Central region | ±15% | Land and building | 5,849 |
| Across the Southeast region | ±25% | Land and building | 5,681 |
| Across the Piedmont-Triad region | ±30% | Land and building | 5,615 |
| Iredell County | ±8% | Land and building | 4,612 |
| Johnston County | ±5% | Land and building | 4,489 |
| Orange County | ±13% | Land and building | 4,192 |
| Across the Southwest region | ±10% | Land and building | 4,071 |
| Orange County | ±9% | Land and building | 4,042 |
| Across the North Central region | ±20% | Land and building | 3,951 |
| Lincoln County | ±12% | Land and building | 3,935 |
| Henderson County | ±12% | Land and building | 3,568 |
| Across the Southwest region | ±20% | Land and building | 3,312 |
| Across the North Central region | ±30% | Land and building | 3,001 |
| Carteret County | ±14% | Land and building | 2,956 |
| Across the Piedmont-Triad region | ±20% | Land and building | 2,947 |
| Cabarrus County | ±7% | Land and building | 2,029 |
| Across the Piedmont-Triad region | ±35% | Land and building | 1,876 |
| Carteret County | ±9% | Land and building | 1,724 |
| Not stated | ±5% | Land and building | 1,669 |
| Across the North Central region | ±35% | Land and building | 1,138 |
| Across the Southeast region | ±30% | Land and building | 377 |
| Across the Southeast region | ±40% | Land and building | 305 |
| Not stated | ±55% | Land only | 108 |
| Not stated | ±50% | Land only | 4 |
What did not pass
The home-value test (nc-homevalue-1) checked 22 county groups on 37,294 sealed sales: 12 passed for a price range, 8 passed only as a rough estimate, and 2 passed neither, so they show no tested home value from it.
Land ranges (nc-price-1, a development backtest on past sales): 7 counties tested; 6 passed for a range (5 of those are shown on the map); Johnston County did not. The forward final check has not run yet.
Land ranges (nc-price-2, a development backtest on past sales): 1 county tested; Johnston County passed for a range. The forward final check has not run yet.
The model test (state-avm-1, run Oct 17, 2026) checked 21 county and property-type groups on 4,906 sales; 2 passed. The rest show no range from it.
Sources and dates
Test sales: recorded North Carolina sales on file for each county. Test figures: our out-of-time test reports and, where run, sealed final checks (nc-homevalue-1, nc-price-1, nc-price-2, state-avm-1). Parcel counts: our North Carolina map on Oct 24, 2026. Estimates are for your own analysis, not an appraisal or a broker price opinion.