How accurate are Indiana price ranges?

Every Indiana figure labelled "Price range" on Groundwork passed a test on later sales (a sealed test, or a development backtest where the table says so) before it was shown: we priced real sales using only data from before each sale, then compared. Figures labelled "Rough estimate" did not reach that standard; their measured miss is listed too. Where a county's test failed outright, its parcels show no figure.

Tested price ranges

Half within: half of the test sales came within this much of the middle of our range (the median miss). No middle shown: the range has no middle figure, so it was tested only on how often later sales fell inside it. Inside the range: the share of scored test sales that fell inside the printed range. A range whose final check is not passed by its due date is withdrawn (the parcel then shows facts only).

Rough estimates

Where a county's own sales were too few for a sealed test, or its test missed our standard but stayed usable, the card says "Rough estimate" and gives the miss measured where it was measured: in the county, or across the state's pooled sales. Each label says what it was tested on and how close its estimates came.

What did not pass

The home-value test (in-homevalue-1) checked 303 county and home-type groups on 55,354 sealed sales: 43 passed for a price range (35 of those are shown on the map), 44 passed only as a rough estimate, and 216 passed neither, so they show no tested home value from it.

Land ranges (in-avx-1.3, a development backtest on past sales): 83 county land groups had test sales; 9 passed for a range (3 of those are shown on the map). The rest show no tested range from it.

In Boone County, 377 parcels of vacant land assessed at $5,000 or less got no range: theirs would have been too wide to be useful.

The model test (state-avm-1, run Oct 17, 2026) checked 154 county and property-type groups on 20,022 sales; 37 passed (36 of those are shown on the map). The rest show no range from it.

Sources and dates

Test sales: recorded Indiana sales on file for each county. Test figures: our out-of-time test reports and, where run, sealed final checks (in-homevalue-1, state-avm-1, in-avx-1.3). Parcel counts: our Indiana map on Oct 24, 2026. Estimates are for your own analysis, not an appraisal or a broker price opinion.

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